Election Day Live!
Tuesday, November 4th – 12:00PM Atlantic Time
The fat lady has sung. Congrats to Obama.
Tuesday, November 4th – 11:35PM Atlantic Time
The Massachusetts ballot initiative to decriminalize marijuana possession looks like it will pass easily. Interesting.
Tuesday, November 4th – 10:45PM Atlantic Time
Now they’re talking about impossible scenarios. All done. The mood on Fox News is somber, the others can barely contain themselves. I look forward to the speeches – especially McCain’s.
Tuesday, November 4th – 10:35PM Atlantic Time
Thank you, Buckeyes! Yes, I’m the first to “officially” call it. I’m in a gambling mood. UPDATED: Looks like I wasn’t.
Tuesday, November 4th – 10:25PM Atlantic Time
I’ve tried to be “Fair and Balanced” and follow Fox News‘ projections as well but, as was mentioned by JD in the comments, their site has been horrendous today. I’m sticking with CNN and the very cautious Politico.
Tuesday, November 4th – 10:05PM Atlantic Time
Obama 174 v. McCain 79 according to CNN. This will all be over soon.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:55PM Atlantic Time
It’s funny to see how safe most of the media outlets are trying to play it. After the exit poll debacle in 2004 and premature-projected wins in 2000 nobody wants to be left looking like idiots. Slow and cautious.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:50PM Atlantic Time
Kay Hagan (D) has unseated Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in North Carolina, AP reports.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:45PM Atlantic Time
They’re already drunk in Ireland?
Supporters of US Democratic presidential candidate and Illinois Senator Barack Obama drink as they watch election results from Ollies Hayes Pub on November 4, 2008 in Moneygall, Co Limerick, in Ireland. Historians have unearthed records showing Obama’s maternal ancestors lived, worked, married and had children in the Moneygall area more than 150 years ago. Fulmuth Kearney, who is Obama’s third great-grandfather, left Moneygall for New York in 1850 to eventually settle in Ohio.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:35PM Atlantic Time
Obama wins Pennsylvania (the “Biden Effect” perhaps?) Cue the fat lady.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:25PM Atlantic Time
Comrade Castro weighs in with his thoughts on Obama:
“He’s without a doubt more intelligent, refined and even- handed than his Republican adversary,” Castro wrote in a “reflection,” which was sent via e-mail. “McCain is old, belligerent, uncultivated, unintelligent and in poor health.”
Good thing he didn’t speak up earlier. It might have had the same effect as Cheney’s recent glowing endorsement of McCain.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:20PM Atlantic Time
Interesting. With everybody except Sean Hannity predicting an Obama win, the stock market saw the biggest election day rally since 1984 today. That’s always a good thing.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:05PM Atlantic Time
Obama carries Massachusetts (my legal residence since 1982) – not exactly a shocker.
Will he carry my birth state of Ohio? Go Buckeyes!
Tuesday, November 4th – 7:35PM Atlantic Time
Mr. Leo Perez Minaya (aka Don Leo), president of Democrats Abroad in the Dominican Republic, comments via telephone:
“Obama wins with 320 Electoral Votes vs. 218 for John McCain…Obama is the only candidate who can fix the US economy. which will then resonate in the Dominican economy.”
Let’s hope he’s right on both predictions.
(Hat-tip to his assistant Eduardo Berrido)
Tuesday, November 4th – 7:10PM Atlantic Time
I haven’t seen any exit polls worth mentioning yet, but the rumblings I am hearing and seeing are that this could be pretty big for Obama. Then again, exit polls are pretty much bullshit. FYI: I am going to rely mostly on Politico for my numbers tonight. It’s one stop shopping if you want numbers on each individual state (including Senate and U.S. Representative Seats).
Tuesday, November 4th – 12:55PM Atlantic Time
I’ve received a few emails about numbers. The first numbers you’ll see will be exit polls, but they won’t start rolling in until late this afternoon. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com explains why we should ignore them. Actual numbers won’t start rolling in until the polls close (7PM is the earliest in some states.)
Tuesday, November 4th – 12:25PM Atlantic Time
A reader via Twitter:
Did you vote? How?
Yes, I voted two weeks ago via absentee ballot (the same way I did when I was in the military.) It’s very easy but you have to stay on top of your town hall to make sure the ballot is mailed out to you with plenty of time to get it back to them. If they don’t you can run into problems like this.
Tuesday, November 4th – 11:10AM Atlantic Time
Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate Daniel Williams weighs in via email:
“I believe Obama will win, getting close to 300 electoral votes. A landslide is possible, but not likely. Supreme Court appointees are my main concern, as I don’t believe the economy will allow the next president to accomplish much else. And I’d like a slight shift to the left more than one to the right. I think Hillary cut a deal to become one of Obama’s Supremes, which, in a rock ‘n roll context, is amusing.”
To see the rest of our conversation go here. Thanks, Daniel.
Tuesday, November 4th – 9:40AM Atlantic Time
Good morning. Karl Rove has officially thrown in the towel and predicts an Obama landslide of 338-200.
Monday, November 3rd – 8:00PM Atlantic Time
Matt Drudge’s blog has been disconnected from reality lately. Now he’s claiming that Obama is giving McCain “the finger” in this video. And no, he still hasn’t replied to my email.
Monday, November 3rd – 6:45PM Atlantic Time
That didn’t take long:
“May he be reunited with her very soon!”
A comment from Michelle Malkin’s blog about the passing of Obama’s grandmother. Classy, no?
Monday, November 3rd – 6:10PM Atlantic Time
Obama’s grandmother passed away today in Hawaii. Horrible. Just horrible. But not as bad as what the far right wing is sure to say about it. Standby.
Monday, November 3rd – 5:30PM Atlantic Time
This is it – the moment we’ve all been waiting for. Election day 2008 is finally upon us and, if you’re like me, you’re dying to just get it over with. A two year campaign is way too long. I am physically tired from all of this and all I do is sit on my butt and blog about it. Can you imagine how the candidates feel by now? Hats off to both of them for remaining on their feet. I’m not sure I could do it. Three to five states per day, multiple speeches, dinners, breakfasts, TV/radio/internet appearances that never end and having every little mistake amplified as if you botched the Bay of Pigs invasion. You gotta want it and both of these guys clearly do. Let’s vote.
I’ll be posting throughout the day right here on this thread like I did for the debates and I want to hear you! So, feel free to come here with your comments, questions, complaints, links and general observations on what’s happening. You can reach me via a number of different ways:
1) Comment directly on this thread (feel free to start now).
2) Email me directly through the contact tab.
3) Twitter
4) Facebook
5) My super-secret Skype account
My prediction is that we are about to see a landslide. McCain will struggle to break 200 electoral votes and Obama will also win the popular vote by 5% or more. What about you?
About the Author: Randall H. Miller is an American college educator/blogger. He is also a former U.S. Army officer (82nd Airborne) with a M.A. in Diplomacy (focusing on International Terrorism) and a B.A. in Criminal Justice. Use the form on the right to sign up and receive notifications of new content. The words and ideas expressed here are 100% his own and not those of his employers or affiliated organizations.
dickmill | Nov 3, 2008 | Reply
Obama/McCain 344/194 electoral votes 53/42%
PorschePurist | Nov 3, 2008 | Reply
I’m selling the super secret Skype account to the highest bidder. Any takers? Wednesday’s Headline!McCain/Palin in surprise victory by the narrowest margin in election history. Electronic voter fraud suspected in Iowa. Democratic conspiracy theorists point fingers at Cheney.
David Lamb | Nov 3, 2008 | Reply
In my opinion, the popular vote is gonna be fairly close, with Obama winning by 3-4%. Obama will win decisively, however, in electoral votes.
In addition, I’ll predict that Democrats get 64 seats in the Senate, but Ted Stevens manages to miraculously–and inexplicably–keep his seat.
gaby | Nov 3, 2008 | Reply
Obama is going to win for sure:)
dickmill | Nov 3, 2008 | Reply
The Dems will reach 60 or beyond in the senate and Joe Lieberman will be told to take a hike from his seniority and committee chairmanships. Unless…of course, they only get 59, in which case dear, old, friend Joe will be welcomed back into the fold with great forgiveness.
Mark | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Let’s finally face it; regardless of who wins this evening, our country has a rough time ahead. NEITHER cantidate has the solution to all of the problems we are currently facing. I sincerely believe that all presidents, both past and present honestly believe that they are doing the best they possibly can for the people of this country. The time for the bashing is over, regardless of who the victor may be, our country will continue on this downward spiral if the executive and legislative branch fail to work together in the best interests of both national security and the people.
JoeTheRunner | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I’d say that today marks a “dark” day in U.S. history but i’d probably just get deleted. Your all celebrating the demise of our capitalist democracy. you should be proud…
Daniel Williams | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
On the contrary, JoeTheRunner, we’re glad to have you post and expose your racist underbelly, scarred and ugly from all its days slithering along the gutter.
Mark | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Funny, I was pretty sure we’re a republic and even the Founding Fathers opposed a direct democracy; at least according to the writings of Hamilton, Jefferson, and the Federalist papers.
Starburst | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I’m confident but nervous!!!!!!!!!!!
I just have this pit in my stomach…
*Starburst*
LaPaix | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I’m so glad this day has finally come. I am sick of the campaigning. I’m with you, Starburst.
Machine Problem Reports Increasing in VA, PA, FL…
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6619
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
McCain wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Indiana will be the pivotal state this year. Long night ahead.
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@ La Paix
Machine problems occur all the time in all elections. Nothing untoward about that. Usually mechanics come out to fix them, or paper emergency are used at polling sites.
LaPaix | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
The irregularities that are occurring now are happening at a much higher rate due to problems with electronic voting machines that were adopted after the problem of the hanging chads. Brad Friedman (The Brad Blog) has been trying to bring attention to these problems for a long time. He hasn’t been making much headway. If you haven’t been following the issue, you might think that it’s normal to have some problems. These are not just “some problems.”
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@ LaPaix
It’s a conspiracy. I’ll go grab my tinfoil hat and shelter in place.
LaPaix | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I didn’t say anything about a conspiracy. There are lots of problems with the machines. Sorry, but that’s the truth. Go ahead and cram your tinfoil hat down over your eyes so you don’t have to acknowledge what’s happening, and certainly don’t read up-to-date information about what’s going on because it might challenge your world view.
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@LaPaix
I never have claimed that there are problems with the electronic machines. It’s to be expected. No voting machine or system is perfect. That’s the reality. I am very well read and my world view is just fine thank you.
LaPaix | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
This is America in the 21st century. I would “expect” better. And sorry, but I am alarmed by what I’m seeing and reading. I’m glad there are people out there bringing attention to the problems and trying to do something about them instead of saying, “Oh, problems are to be expected and are normal.” Tell that to someone who didn’t get a box to vote for president or who pressed the box and saw their vote go to someone else. I’d bet you’d be a little alarmed if it happened to you.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6616
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6619
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6613
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6592
http://www.bradblog.com/?page_id=6577
RHM | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@ Frank and Lapaix,
I doubt there’s any big conspiracy but for my own piece of mind I’d like to see some sort of paper back-up with electronic voting. I’m not sure what would be more efficient (and legal) but perhaps a paper receipt for the voter or something.
Either way, I’m not particularly worried about voter fraud or election rigging. I’m more worried about our ability to service so many voters – a GOOD problem to have if you ask me. At least turn-out is at a record high. This will make Obama’s win that much more significant.
Mark | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Randy..gotta agree with you on that- while I believe the country is fatigued by nearly two years of campaigning, the turn out alone was worth it with people actually believing in and using the system for a change. I’m curious to see what percentage of eligible voters carried out their civic responsibility. While I may not be pleased with tonight’s outcome, at least people cared enough to vote this time.
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
And if McCain wins???
JPS | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Obama by 5 to 6% nationwide and wins by 100 electoral votes. With regards to the American economy Don Leo doesn’t have a clue….the president doesn’t “fix economies”….I voted Obama, but if the Dems think that the country wants big government and interventionist economic policies they’re dead wrong…..the $700 B bailout was passed and the American people hated every cent of it. The Dems probably thought it was an early Christmas present.
GPalmer | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
This is definitely one area where I would support a single system… just easier to monitor and prevent tampering when it’s constant.
And, believe me… everyone will be concerned if this turns out to be close.
Mark | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I agree a single system may be ‘easier’ but I also feel it would be problematic; even something as simple as absentee ballots for active duty military either stationed outside their legal residence or forward deployed in a combat zone. This would be just one of the several issues to address for a ’single’ system.
GPalmer | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
JPS is absolutely correct… I don’t know who Don Leo is, but if he really believes that, he shouldn’t be president of anything.
Do you think Bush is to blame for the current state of things?
Does Clinton deserve credit for the economy under his tenure?
President’s get much of the blame or credit, but they have little impact on the economy as a whole. It takes alot more than one a**hole to screw up an economy.
JD | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
So Randall, what websites are you watching? Or are you sticking to the boob tube?
My boob tube took a dump, so I’m limiting myself to my PC.
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Kentucky and West Virginia for McCain.
RHM | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Boob tube is boring right now. Each channel has its own guy doing his best to channel John Maddon and impress us with their touch screens!
Honestly, when only 2% of the precints have reported are the numbers reliable? We’ve all been through this before.
@ JD,
I am surfing around but relying mostly on http://www.Politico.com
JD | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I’m surfing too, but Fox is about to get turned off. Their reporting has been going up and down since they started.
While I agree it’s way too early in the game to put much stock in ANY reporting, a national website like Foxnews should have stopped experimenting with their reporting system a long time ago.
David Lamb | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Good stuff. This is looking to be very interesting.
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Pennsylvania hurts McCain, however if he takes VA, Ohio, Florida, NC and Indiana he can still win.
JD | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Obama is kicking butt in Oh, NC, and Fl. I think the fat lady is singing.
Greg | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
It’s gonna be tough for him to carry all of those states, though.
David Lamb | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Mr. Miller, perhaps you forgot to switch your clock back to standard time. Unless, I’m missing something it’s 8:39 EST right now, and it looks like you’re blogging from about an hour in the future. How do you do it?
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
DR does not use daylight savings time. Their time doesn’t change.
Greg | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
To avoid any implication that I support McCain, my comment was in reference to McCain carrying the states Frank mentioned . . . .
RHM | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@ David Lamb
I live in the Dominican Republic. We don’t ever change the clocks. Read the time closely and notice it’s properly labeled “Atlantic Time.”
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
It’s going to be a late and I go to bed early, I’m up at 4:30. Hopefully I can wake up to the good news of President elect McCain.
Greg | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Everyone can dream . . . .
Jin Jirrie | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Looks like its in the bag for Obama! Virginia and Pennsylvania go blue – latest exit polls give Obama a 7.6% lead overall.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/05/uselections2008-exit-polls
has the crucial states heading Obama’s way.
Frank the Tank | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@Randy
Can you imagine the utter chaos and confusion if DR ever did change clocks twice a year?
RHM | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
No way. It would be complete chaos!
“Que hora es?”
“Que hora es?”
“Cono! Que paso?”
Jin Jirrie | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Ohio goes to Obama! Crowds growing in expectation of victory in Chicago.
David Lamb | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Randall,
Will and I just called the election on my blog. I know you probably don’t want to be caught wrong on this one, but I would encourage you to do the same. With Obama looking to win PA, OH, and NH. It’s looking nearly impossible for a McCain victory.
David Lamb | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
“@ David Lamb
I live in the Dominican Republic. We don’t ever change the clocks. Read the time closely and notice it’s properly labeled “Atlantic Time.””
Just saw your response and that of Frank. Thanks for the international education. This is a crazy world.
Jin Jirrie | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
So … can the Dems win a hat trick? complete control of the political agenda and no need to kowtow to reactionaries, religious fundamentalists and mercantilists could lead to a significant redemption of the US internationally, the US perceived again as a nation to respect rather than the object of ridicule created and sustained by Bush.
Porsche Cars, Products and LifeStyle | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
@RHM,
Now that your man is in and we’re going to socialism, do you want to reserver your week in my Porsche now?
Chris Tejeda | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Congrats to all Obamaniacs! I honestly hope HE CAN.
Chris Tejeda | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
See ya in four years! PALIN ‘08!!!
Chris Tejeda | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Mccain’s concession speech. The man is a class act.
Porsche Cars, Products and LifeStyle | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
I hate to say it, but it was his best speech of the entire campaign. If he could have projected that kind of empathy and emotion in his other speeches, the results might be different.
Jin Jirrie | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
By 2012, the present dubious voting machinery will be overhauled, there’ll be greater enfranchisement and an even greater majority who vote for Obama
dickmill | Nov 4, 2008 | Reply
Slight correction to Randy — marijuana wasn’t decriminalized in MA. The PENALTY was changed from a felony to a misdemeanor for 1 oz or less. It will still be illegal.
RHM | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
@ Dickmill
“Decriminalization is the reduction or abolition of criminal penalties in relation to certain acts, but regulated permits or fines might still apply (for contrast, see: Legalization).”
dickmill | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
“Decriminalization:
The adoption or repeal of legislation, the effect of which is that acts or omissions formerly considered criminal are no longer so characterized, and penal sanctions for such acts or omissions are removed.”
Your move…
GPalmer | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
Ok, who’s definition is listed first… I guess the old adage is true… The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree….
Either way, it’s pretty interesting that it passed by such a margin…
GPalmer | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
And, is it 1 oz or less, or less than one 1 oz.. because, you know.. it only comes in 1/8 oz increments, so… it’s an important distinction.
dickmill | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
“This proposed law would replace the criminal penalties for possession of one ounce or less of marijuana with a new system of civil penalties, to be enforced by issuing citations, and would exclude information regarding this civil offense from the state’s criminal record information system.”
So, I guess going from “criminal penalties to “civil penalties” might be viewed narrowly at “decriminalization.”
RHM | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
@ dickmill
You’re wrong, even if you won’t say it.
dickmill | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
I’ll be traveling with Governor Palin back to Alaska to help watch for Putin flying around.
Frank the Tank | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
I think come 2010 there will be a lot of buyers’ remorse in America.
Also I am much more concerned and worried about Pelosi and Reid their agenda.
GPalmer | Nov 5, 2008 | Reply
@ tank… here! here! Pelosi and Reid are the ones to be afraid of…
Randy, what are the taxes like in the DR? Given the imminent socialization of our country.. I’m looking to relocate….