What is Obama’s Chinese Foreign Policy?
I was recently invited to participate in a digital discussion by Dr. Tang Xiaosong, Professor and President of the Center for International Security and Strategic Studies at Guandong University of Foreign Studies in China. Needless to say I jumped on the opportunity to work with fellow educators and students of geopolitics from the other side of the world. These are my thoughts on a very open-ended question: What do you think of Obama’s Chinese foreign policy positions? The views expressed are 100% my own.
Courting the Dragon
During the first 100 days of a new American president’s term he is watched even more closely than he was during the campaign. Add to the equation the fact that the current President inherited two widely unpopular wars (Iraq and Afghanistan), the ongoing “war on terror”, and a global economic crisis. Then consider the additional emerging threats – a nuclear Iran, a restless Russia, and the perpetually erratic North Korea. Add international intrigue and unprecedented popularity to the equation and we get a better idea about the microscope and immense pressure President Barack Obama is currently working under. We also gain a sense for just how connected all of these issues are and it becomes obvious that any serious solutions must include Chinese components.
Relations between the U.S. and China have been stable for the past decade or so, but not entirely without drama. In 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with an American spy plane resulting in the death of the pilot and 11 Americans being held in custody for almost two weeks. Most recently, American and Chinese naval forces clashed in the Pacific when (depending on who you believe) a U.S. ship either violated Chinese maritime borders or was needlessly harassed by Chinese forces in international waters. As a consequence, American and Chinese leaders are working to smooth relations and avoid the kind of problems that such incidents can quickly escalate into. Neither side wants to rock the boat prior to Obama’s April meeting with President Hu.
Recent meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have been heavy on style and light on substance. The Associated Press reports:
“The Clinton-Yang meeting Wednesday was meant originally to build on good will from Clinton’s visit to China last month….Clinton, during her China trip, impressed Beijing officials by listening to China’s concerns, pledging not to let human rights differences interfere with attempts to cooperate on broader issues, and generally working to lay a foundation for a positive relationship between the two powers.”
The apparent dropping of human rights issues is likely more out of necessity than ideology. Quite frankly, the U.S. has much bigger problems to deal with and will need the cooperation of the Chinese in order to deal effectively with those issues. In addition, the fiascos involving extraordinary rendition and torture over the past 8 years have robbed the U.S. of much of its moral credibility when it comes to human rights – a reality made even more difficult as we struggle over what to do with 17 Uighurs (Islamic militants from Western China picked up training in Afghanistan in 2001) still being held at Guantanamo Bay. They pose no threat to the U.S., but are very dangerous in the eyes of Beijing. What would our reaction be if Beijing were holding members of al Qaeda and refused to hand them over? Can we afford to alienate a major partner in the war on terror? A country whose help we will need in order to deal with emerging threats while we wind down conflicts elsewhere?
Iran, Russia, and North Korea are increasingly vocal and active because the U.S. simply doesn’t have the bandwidth to deal with them directly right now. A cooperative Chinese ally could put effective pressure on all three if motivated to do so. But there will have to be some give and take. China is a major player in geopolitics; an economic powerhouse with growing influence in Africa and South America. Clearly the Chinese have interests which must be addressed. But which interests will drive their decisions at the negotiating table?
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao spoke in London last week. According to Politico he expressed deep concern about the American economy:
“President Obama and his new government have adopted a series of measures to deal with the financial crisis. We have expectations as to the effects of these measures…We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried,” he said.
But what reassurance could the Obama administration give him? What will he need in order to continue buying U.S. Treasury Bonds? Will it be changes to U.S. financial policy that keep the money coming in? Or will it require action elsewhere like, say, a moratorium on weapons sales to Taiwan, a promise to stay out of territorial waters, and holding off on the human rights issues until the U.S. gets its own house in order?
These are questions that can’t be answered right now. However, it seems clear that the Obama administration’s “charm offensive” will continue through his meeting with President Hu next month. Both men are dealing with challenges that require the others’ support and, perhaps most important, each is keenly aware of their mutual dependency. In addition, Obama’s first 100 days will be over and the world will be expecting results. Will Obama smile for the cameras only to then wag his finger and lecture the Chinese about human rights? Or will he make progress by ushering in a new era of realistic American/Chinese relations? Let’s hope for the latter – it would be a major step toward solving a lot of problems.
To book me for a lecture or debate go here.
About the Author: Randall H. Miller is an American college educator/blogger. He is also a former U.S. Army officer (82nd Airborne) with a M.A. in Diplomacy (focusing on International Terrorism) and a B.A. in Criminal Justice. Use the form on the right to sign up and receive notifications of new content. The words and ideas expressed here are 100% his own and not those of his employers or affiliated organizations.
Daniel Williams | Mar 20, 2009 | Reply
Excellent post!
JR Mirador | Mar 20, 2009 | Reply
The “charm offensive” is actually a charm defensive, when the US needs China more than China needs the US. In addition, the idea that US foreign policy toward China should revolve around the containment of Russia is not just ludicrous, but counterproductive in a multipolar world.
David Cobb | Mar 24, 2009 | Reply
Not sure if I completely agree with Mirador. Yeah we need China and China needs us, but that will change and we have to be ready to jump. The trick is to get China to contain Russia for us. Where is Machiavelli…er..um…uh…I mean Kissinger when you need him?
Jinjirrie | Mar 27, 2009 | Reply
China is now well and truly in the ascendancy – it may not be long, ironically, before China uses the US to operate its foreign policy by proxy less than circuitously. Recently the US was told not on any account to print money, otherwise China would cease investing in the US – 10 years ago, this would have been unthinkable.
Does the US at this stage have much choice in its relations with the other global powers?
At stake are the treasures of the Caucasus – while the US and its hapless partners are leeched running interference in the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan, China and Russia wait comfortably, secure in their energy alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The current great game is about energy, and at present, it’s clear who’s losing – and who is containing who.
Good reading here: http://informationclearinghouse.info/article22292.htm