Forgive me for taking so long to reply to Joseph F. Lydon’s thoughtful and persuasive arguments against a public health care option. I’ve been sidetracked on different projects at both home and office and this is the first chance I’ve had to hammer out my thoughts. Let me start by highlighting the common ground.

I agree with every one of Joe’s proposed solutions. Portability, open enrollment across state lines, tort reform, tax credits and eliminating routine (non-emergency) health care for illegals are all no-brainers. However, we have a philosophical disagreement when it comes to the “right to health care.” I believe that when a country reaches the level of development and success that the U.S. has, universal medical coverage for its citizens must rank at the top of its national priorities. We are the most powerful nation the earth has ever seen and our number one priority is the safety and well-being of our citizens. This includes providing state-of-the-art medical care to all citizens from cradle to grave.

Would it be expensive? Yes. But we could easily cover the costs if we were willing to make the necessary adjustments to our foreign policy and military adventures. Is government inherently inept? Yes. And I’m not advocating that the government necessarily needs to get involved in the business of actually providing care. But we could find ways to finance everyone’s coverage through tax credits, vouchers, and incentives. All I care is that every American citizen is covered. It’s time to invest in ourselves first. Maybe it’s a good time to close those corporate tax loopholes as well. It’s just a thought.

Sidenote: We hear non-stop whining from the right about how awful the Canadian and British medical systems are. Ok. Then let’s not do it like them. Don’t we do everything better than those wussies anyway?

Comments and criticism are welcome.

Breaking News:

TEHRAN (Reuters) – A suicide bomber killed six senior Revolutionary Guards commanders, including two of its top officers, and 25 other people on Sunday in one of the boldest attacks against Iran’s most powerful military institution.

The attack highlighted deepening instability in the Islamic Republic’s southeast bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, where many of Iran’s minority Sunnis live and which has seen a spate of deadly bombings and other violence in the last few years.

State media said a local rebel Sunni group called Jundollah (God’s soldiers) claimed responsibility for the attack, the deadliest on the elite Revolutionary Guards in recent years, which also wounded some 30 people at a meeting of tribal chiefs.

This is significant and it will be very interesting to see where the investigation leads. Iran is not going away and we’re bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan as it is. We need to wrap up both of those operations A.S.A.P. in order to have the teeth to back up our diplomatic efforts.

Today’s post is the opening argument from an old friend, classmate, and brother in arms, Mr. Joseph F. Lydon. We’ve been warming up unintentionally via FaceBook over the past few months and decided that it would be fun to make our debates a bit more formal. Joe is a Norwich grad with a B.A. in Political Science (concentration in Middle Eastern Studies). In addition, he’s served faithfully in the U.S. Coast Guard since 1993 in a number of positions, including intelligence billets responsible for the Korean Peninsula and Iran (among other hot spots). He’s a contributing source for the Wall Street Journal and currently working on an article for publication about the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. In civilian life, he’s a national sales manager for a major insurance brokerage and has a wife and 3 kids. Joe proudly calls himself a conservative “a little to the right of Atilla the Hun.” I’ll post my argument next week. Feel free to leave comments and criticism. Enjoy!

The Case Against Government Run Health Care

It has been said that the road to hell is paved with good intentions…if there was ever a fit for this it is the current argument for government run health care. From ineptitude to conflicts of interest to a negative world track history and stopping with the fact that it will still leave the United States with a secondary out of pocket bill for the huge drain of health care for illegal Aliens, Government run health care is the furthest thing from the solution to the current problem (a problem that needs to be addressed) that this nation faces. Let’s take the points one by one.

1) Ineptitude of the Government

Whether Democrat or Republican, Conservative or Liberal, the one fact that has been proven true time and time again is that the government has no skill in the business of business. From bloated non profitable institutions like the Post Office to the handling of Hurricane Katrina, right up to the current day of a bipartisan stimulus program that was twice as expensive, and a cash for clunkers program that was three times as expensive as the original estimates, the government has rarely ever come in on time or on budget. Why is this? Because they do not have to answer to anyone but themselves and the occasional voter if they pay attention. There is no motivation for a bureaucrat to go the extra mile in running a profitable company because his job doesn’t depend on it being profitable.

2) Having the Institution that regulates the health industry being a competitor in the system.

President Obama has stated specifically that the Government option would be funded primarily by the premiums it receives. Given the previously mentioned ineptitude of the government to be profitable, what happens when their private sector competition proves to provide coverage cheaper and with better service? Answer: the government plan loses clients and, more importantly, healthy clients who do not have the fear a sick person has about changing insurance options even if it is a better deal. This will put the government in a position where it can either raise the premiums on its clients, or it can much more easily, change the regulations on its competition, making the government plan more appealing. Sound far fetched? It’s already in the bill. If an employer does not provide coverage for his employees, he has to pay an 8% penalty to the Federal Government. The problem is that this is, in most cases, much cheaper than the cost of providing coverage through private health insurance. The Government instantly creates a need for people to take the Government plan because the private plan is no longer offered. How much more intrusive will the government get as it falls more and more into the red due to it’s own incompetence? Where is the accountability?

3) World History

The one irrefutable fact is that no where in the world is socialized medicine working well. The System in Canada is imploding. It’s the same in Europe as well. Moreover, the care that is being provided is substandard than the health care provided in the United States (of whose citizens, over 85% approve of their health care insurance). The following chart speaks volumes.

Why would we expect it to be any different here or, more importantly, why would we risk it even being possible to go from our care to the Canadian / European type of system. Are you willing to let your child who needs any of the above listed services wait the way a Canadian waits?

4) The Illegal Alien Crisis

The single biggest drain on the American Medical System is the free health Care provided to Illegal Aliens. Further, President Obama states that they will not be covered under the Government run option. What he does not say is that they will not be covered. So even after adding over $80 billion dollars a year to the current deficit, according to White House and Congressional figures (remembering that the government never comes in on budget) we will still be paying for the care of illegals through Medicaid and other government sponsored reimbursement options (i.e. tax dollars). The following chart gives you an idea of the burden this places on our system:

Extrapolate these percentages against the estimated 20 million illegals that live in the country. People, who drive down wages, drain public services, and who for the most part work in a non income tax paying shadow economy will still be the same burden on the heath care system.

5) Numbers don’t lie

The notion that 40 million people can be added to a thinly stretched system without  rationing care is at the least ignorance of the facts and at worst a bold faced lie. A simple example. If you have a pie and you have to cut it 4 ways, the pieces are a lot bigger than if you cut it 8 ways. Under the current proposal, we’re adding 40 million more slices. If someone else is getting something that another person was getting before, the second person is now getting less. This is irrefutable.

THE SOLUTION

The current debate in regards to health care does not have to be an all or nothing for either side to claim victory. Unlike many other issues being debated now by the right and the left, there are immediate steps that can be taken that are agreeable to both sides that would have an instant effect of increasing choice and lowering premiums. Here are a few;

1)      Portability- Allow people to purchase insurance across state lines. More companies in the mix means more competition, which in a correctly regulated capitalist system consistently brings down cost.

2)      Allow for open enrollment without underwriting- have a 30 day window when a person becomes eligible due to age or has a need to purchase coverage ( example, loss of a job). Also allow for a 30 day window for open enrollment each year without underwriting. Again, each company will be forced to compete on the same level field breeding competition. Also, having limited open enrollment periods instead of eliminating underwriting altogether avoids the problem of healthy people not picking up insurance until they get sick. Complete elimination of underwriting would be like allowing people to buy auto insurance after they had the accident. It doesn’t make sense. Personal accountability has to be part of the solution.

3)      Tort Reform- Impose stiff penalties for frivolous lawsuits against Hospitals and Doctors. (note the word frivolous). In return impose higher fines/penalties for legitimate lawsuits arising from medical malpractice.

4)      Elimination of health care for Illegals- Foreigners who break into the country are a drain on our system. This burden has fallen on the American people far to long. The argument that we must provide them health care to maintain the overall public health is wrong. 4 Letters – H1N1. Started in Mexico, spread through the United States. I’m not saying that Illegals are the sole cause of the spread of the disease, but they are a contributing factor. If you are illegal and you get sick, then pay for it yourself or go back to your home country for care. Billions in savings.

5)      Tax credits and subsidies for American Citizens to assist in the purchase of private health coverage- Though this goes against my Capitalist nature, there “General Welfare” portion of the Constitution is motivation enough for me to compromise here. If we can provide an earned income tax credit for children, we can provide one for health care. Insurance companies would be pounding on the doors of people to get their business.

The previous options offered would have an immediate effect not only insuring Americans, but would result in lower cost and equally as important, would keep the failed concept of socialized medicine out of the American Lexicon.

Comments and criticism are welcome.

I almost spit out my morning coffee reading this blog post by Seinfeld creator Larry David. I’ve had a hard time biting my tongue a few times this campaign season, but I’ve yet to be kicked out of any place. Is anyone else having a hard time biting their tongue? Larry David writes:

The debates were particularly challenging for me to monitor. First I tried running in and out of the room so I would only hear my guy. This worked until I knocked over a tray of hors d’oeuvres. “Sit down or get out!” my host demanded. “Okay,” I said, and took a seat, but I was more fidgety than a ten-year-old at temple. I just couldn’t watch without saying anything, and my running commentary, which mostly consisted of “Shut up, you prick!” or “You’re a fucking liar!!!” or “Go to hell, you cocksucker!” was way too distracting for the attendees, and finally I was asked to leave.

The largest government bailout ever – currently being presided over by George “the small government candidate” W. Bush – has not gone unnoticed by the “Mouth of the South” Hugo Chavez. He recently commented on “Comrade Bush”:

Chavez, who calls capitalism an evil and ex-Cuban leader Fidel Castro his mentor, ridiculed Bush for his plan for the federal government to take equity in American banks despite the U.S. right-wing’s criticism of Venezuelan nationalizations.

“Bush is to the left of me now,” Chavez told an audience of international intellectuals debating the benefits of socialism. “Comrade Bush announced he will buy shares in private banks.”

Chavez, who has insulted Bush in the past as a drunkard or the devil, called him clueless on Wednesday. He accused him of simply parroting the words of his aides without understanding the new policies that rely on heavy state intervention.

“I am convinced he has got no idea what’s going on,” said Chavez, who has nationalized swaths of the OPEC nation’s economy in recent years and is in negotiations to take over a Spanish bank in Venezuela.

So far no comments from Castro.

If you’re upset that the debates are over you can always watch the “Third Party Debate” this Sunday:

Free and Equal.Org, a group formed to encourage third-party candidacies, is promoting a debate at the Columbia Political Union at Columbia University in New York for all six candidates seeking the presidency. The group is pretty much resigned to the fact that neither Senator John McCain nor Senator Barack Obama will be there.

And amazingly:

The only question mark is Bob Barr, the Libertarian Party candidate. Mr. Barr has made it clear that he will only debate Mr. Nader and no one else. Christina M. Tobin, an event organizer and a Nader campaign staffer, said that she “challenges” Mr. Barr to show up.

What else would Barr possibly have to do? He’s been a major disappointment to the Libertarian Party by failing to make even the slightest ripple in this election. There are several other Libertarian presidential candidates who would have been much more inspiring.

There’s only two and a half more weeks until the election. Personally, I don’t think this will be close at all. As a result, the GOP party faithful will retreat into a cocoon of fundamentalism and reemerge ten times scarier at some point in the future. Any true reformers within the party will have to contain these wackos before even thinking about getting anything accomplished.

A once inclusive GOP (remember Reagan Democrats?) now has a litmus test for their candidates. They must be anti-choice, anti-gay, creationist, climate change deniers. Thankfully, that narrows the candidate pool down to a psychotic few – but what they lack in numbers they make up for with their fundamentalist zealotry. I’d speculate only 10%-15% of Republicans fall into this category. What about you?

The reality of the map above from Electoral-Vote.com shows the reality of where we are today. The Democrats are poised to win the White House as well as majorities in the U.S. House or Representatives and Senate. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with it. Remember, congress is already controlled by democrats and they have a lower approval rating than President Bush. This may turn out to be a classic case of “be careful what you wish for.”

In spite of this reality – or perhaps because of it – McCain’s campaign has gone completely negative. Just listen to this Robo-Call the McCain/Palin camp is spending money on.

Can you get much lower? Dishonest? Un-American? We’ll find out in the next 20 days. Personally, I think it’s going to get even nastier. What about you?

10:30 PM EDT
Curtains.

Final statements were underwhelming.

But when McCain mentioned his family’s history of military service I couldn’t help but think of Lieutenant Dan.

Winner: Obama.
McCain is all done. It’s over.

Your final thoughts?
(Thanks again to the C-Span Debate Hub folks for connecting with us.)

10:20 PM EDT
Last question? Oh well.
Is there anyone in their right mind who would think McCain is more in touch when it comes to average, public education? This is where Obama’s community organizer experience actually helps. (I can hear the laughs from the right)

McCain does not know how to use a computer. This guy did:

10:14 PM EDT
A reader via email:

McCain is handin’ Obama his ass and you see Obama winning?

Yes.

10:09 PM EDT
How bad does McCain want to drop an “F-bomb?”

McCain is dodging the abortion issue. Overturning Roe v. Wade is a no-no with the overwhelming majority of women today.

Obama’s answer was much more thoughtful. Women like that. Well, the smart ones do.

9:56 PM EDT
A reader via email:

McCain looks like he’s about to burst.

9:52 PM EDT
A reader via Tweeter:

McCain has got to at least try not to look like an angry old man.

He can’t. And I think he’s gonna get a lot worse before this is over. This is literally his swan song.

9:45 PM EDT
This VP question is amazing. Could you imagine having to defend Palin as a serious President of the United States?

McCain: Palin is a role model for women. Wow. Special needs. Ok.

9:38 PM EDT
McCain is unhinged. Absolutely unhinged. Being this aggressive is a stupid strategy. Or is that a tactic?

Obama is answering the questions calmly.

9:34 PM EDT
Obama swings. Here we go.

It is absolutely unbelievable that McCain is playing the victim. Unbelievable. This man is crazy.

9:30 PM EDT
Here’s your first “Oh shit” moment.

McCain is actually playing the victim on the negative campaigning question.

Obama handled that one perfectly. Forget our our “hurt feelings” and get back to the issues. He took the high road. Presidential, no?

9:25 PM EDT
Ok. McCain looked pissed when he said “I’m not Bush. If you wanted to run against him you should have run four years ago.” He’s aggressive tonight. He has to be. Let’s see how well Barack can disarm him. Pulling the moderator in on the conversation will be important.

Obama’s temperment is what will eventually clinch the election.

It’s killing McCain to share the stage with “this one.”

9:20 PM EDT
“Borrowing money from China to give to Saudi Arabia.” Great line.

McCain went into earmarks. No surprise. Here’s what they represent in the overall budget. Thank God Obama finally addressed that one.

9:15 PM EDT
15 minutes in and we haven’t seen “Mean McCain” yet.

9:12 PM EDT
Strong opening. Wow. Obama is going to run away with this. I especially like how he changed describing those who will see higher taxes under his administration – “a quarter million a year” sounds like much more than two hundred and fifty grand.

9:10 PM EDT
McCain missed a good opportunity to say something classy about the negative tone of his campaign over the past two weeks. Something like this would have sufficed – “Senator Obama, it’s good to be with you again and in light of some of the nasty turns that inevitably come up on the campaign trail… I’d just like to say that I respect you as a patriotic American, family man, and Christian. I happen to think you are wrong about everything else. But these things I recognize.” Or would that sort of high-minded maturity be frowned upon by the GOP?

9:00 PM EDT

Show time!

A Reader Via Facebook:
Randy, is this worth watching? Will anything of real significance actually happen?

Yes. For some reason I think there will be at least one “Oh shit!” moment. Perhaps several. There’s too much on the line. Tensions are high.

8:25 PM EDT
They’re watching us…..

8:07 PM EDT
The C-SPAN Debate Hub is linked in to this thread for the evening. Thanks again to Leslie for hooking us up.

I’m watching O’Reilly. He’s showing videos of Reverend Wright and complimenting himself. Who is the bigger blowhard, Hannity or O’Reilly?

7:04 PM EDT
Here’s my prediction from the warm-up post:

Face to face at a table with a moderator to play off of? Obama will thrive in this setting. It gives him a chance to be conversational and charming. This will drive McCain nuts and he won’t be able to conceal his absolute disdain (he honestly thinks he’s being screwed out of the presidency). He’ll come off as an angry, old man. It’s over. Cue the fat lady.

What about you?

I will be live-blogging the event. Stop by and say hello. You can contact me directly via any of the following:

1) Comment directly on the live thread (It’ll be open by 8:00 or so).
2) Email me directly through the contact tab
3) Twitter
4) Facebook
5) My super-secret Skype account

Also be sure to check out the C-SPAN Debate Hub. It’s one-stop-shopping, honestly. Check it out.

Here’s what the New York Times says to look for tonight:

In tonight’s debate the two candidates will be seated next to each other at a table. The format is intended to promote conversation rather than the regurgitation of stump speeches. It sometimes encourages candidates to be more civil toward one another, but it can also have the opposite effect.
In previous debates when Mr. McCain has been seated next to his opponent — earlier this year against Mitt Romney and in 2000 against George W. Bush — he evidently saw no reason to restrain himself.

My prediction: Face to face at a table with a moderator to play off of? Obama will thrive in this setting. It gives him a chance to be conversational and charming. This will drive McCain nuts and he won’t be able to conceal his absolute disdain (he honestly thinks he’s being screwed out of the presidency). He’ll come off as an angry, old man. It’s over. Cue the fat lady.

On a sidenote:
Isn’t it amusing how conservatives belittle any garden-variety liberal who refuses to appear on Fox News, but think it’s perfectly ok for the #2 on their presidential ticket to avoid everybody BUT Fox News? Does she think belligerent foreign leaders or, even worse, our own congress will somehow be easier to spar with? Check out the poll on the left hand side.

See you tonight. UPDATED: The Live thread is now open. Click here to participate.

That’s a rhetorical question – obviously they are. I’ve had some spirited discussions lately but nothing quite this exciting:

At that point one of the arguers, Johnny Morales, 26, got out of his seat, grabbed the other arguer by his head “and slammed it into the wall, causing a minor laceration with bleeding to the back of the victim’s head.”

Don’t worry. This whole thing will be over in exactly three weeks.

I’ll be live-blogging the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday, October 15th. The candidates will clash at Hofstra University in New York. The topic is domestic policy and it all kicks off at 9:00 PM EDT. I’ll be up and running prior to that. Stop by and say hello.

Have you ever wondered how the candidates prepare for these “do or die” debates? Foreign Policy has an interesting article right here. Check it out to see the lengths that some candidates have gone over the years to ensure a top-notch performance.

Personally, I got a chuckle out of this:

Last week we noted unconfirmed sightings of an “Obama for President” billboard in the Xbox 360 racing game Burnout Paradise. Today we’re able to report that it is, in fact, an official advertisement placed by the senator’s campaign team.

It’s unclear how effective this will be but, if nothing else, it illustrates the generational gaps between the two campaigns.

Be sure to stop by and interact during the debate. I will be including reader reactions and comments into my updates. If you want to speak your mind you have several ways of reaching me:

1) Comment directly on the live thread
2) Email me directly through the contact tab
3) Twitter
4) Facebook
5) My super-secret Skype account

I’ll see you there!

10:35 PM EDT
Curtains.

Is it me or do the ground rules really put a damper on any truly spirited debate and new discovery? Anyway, nothing too earth-shattering tonight. And I’m eternally grateful that Sarah “Barracuda” Palin wasn’t mentioned.

Winner: Obama (but I’m obviously bias). McCain gets a smiley face for not blowing his stack.

Special thanks to Simon and Leslie at C-SPAN’s Debate Hub for linking to me.

10:20 PM EDT
The gloves are off and Brokaw seems to have surrendered. Go figure. I bet he can’t wait for this to be over.

10 minutes are left.

McCain promises to “get Bin Laden”, but doesn’t say what he’d do differently. Just trust him, “he knows how to win wars.” And did he just say Obama was right about something? Wow. Then he blows it by claiming Obama has yet to acknowledge the success of the surge, which he has done dozens of times now. Is McCain lying or just not paying attention?

10:13 PM EDT
Obama’s answer on hitting Bin Laden across the Pakistani border was good. He make a commitment to do it if we ever get actionable intelligence.

McCain (the man who sang about bombing Iran) says that Obama “talks loudly?”

10:08 PM EDT
Foreign Policy:
Sadly, all of the pie-in-the-sky good deeds McCain is referencing have been tarnished by his party over the past 8 years. And it will take a lot of work and new blood to start fixing it.

The Obama Doctrine: Cautious. Non-committal.

The McCain Doctrine: Wastes the first part of his time bashing Obama instead of laying out his own vision. He touts the importance of judgment, wisdom, temperance. In the end – cautious and non-committal.

9:58 PM EDT
Great question from Brokaw on how best to inspire energy innovation.

Weak, low-class joke about hair transplants by McCain.

Excellent health care question from the crowd and follow-up by Brokaw. And Obama nailed it. How does the most powerful country the world has ever seen NOT have universal health care? For a country like us – health care is a human right.

9:45 PM EDT
Listen. Obama’s tax plan leaves 95% of tax payers alone. Is that taxing the rich? Sure. But McCain won’t win an election by playing to the 5% who will be paying more.

We are at the halfway point and, IMHO, Obama is easily winning.

9:39 PM EDT
Herbert Hoover? Did McCain know him?

Obama’s facial expressions are great if you’re lucky to get a glimpse (reaction shots are against the “memorandum of understanding” governing this debate.) He’s smiling and looks as cool as a cucumber.

9:33 PM EDT
If you’re watching on CNN would you agree that the lines at the bottom (representing the sentiments of the audience) and spiking for Obama’s answers more than McCain’s?

9:30 PM EDT
Obama does a much better job of relating to working class people, hands down.

Brokaw is going to go nuts if these guys don’t start respecting the time.

Great question about sacrifice and not an easy one to answer. Americans don’t even like to think about sacrifice. Then McCain goes off on earmarks again, as if that’s a sacrifice. Maybe he’s playing to a parallel universe that only he can see.

9:23 PM EDT
I’m surprised it took McCain this long to bring up earmarks. Unfortunately, even if they were completely eliminated it would have no effect on the budget. Annual spending on earmarks is actually not that big.

9:21 PM EDT
Ok. That lady is definitely undecided and we can all relate to her. Let’s hope she’s not the only one in the room. I admire her open disgust with both parties.

9:16 PM EDT
The ice is broken.

Obama:
I like the way Obama labeled the current financial crisis the “final verdict” on the Bush administration. Keep hammering that home. Good opening for Obama.

McCain:
McCain launches right into a canned response and he’s not very good at making it look like an answer. Ending our dependency on foreign oil is not the “fastest, most direct” way to alleviate the current suffering on the middle class. Listen to the questions, Senator.

McCain: Bailout versus rescue, oh sure. And I can’t believe he mentioned “suspending his campaign.” And then, he takes the first shot at Obama’s associations and blames the housing crash on Obama.

Obama: I like his focus and composure. And the fact that he is actually answering the question while saving time to address McCain’s cheap shot.

9:04 PM EDT
Showtime. Nice warm greeting with very little teeth-grinding by McCain.

8:10 PM EDT
Tonight’s debate is “town hall” style with supposedly undecided voters asking the questions. Undecided voters? These two candidates couldn’t be more different. On this issue, I agree with the folks at The New Republic who “wonder whether a voter who at this point says he or she is ‘uncommitted’ is most capable of formulating a telling question to the candidates.”

7:25 PM EDT
According to Politico, McCain advisers are worried about their candidate’s inherent grumpiness. I would be too. But I also don’t see him making any progress by forcing a smile – we’ve seen that before and it was creepy.

You can read my debate Warm-up here.

I’ll be live-blogging the debate tonight. Stop back for updates.

There is already a live-cam of the press pool up and running over at C-SPAN’s Debate Hub. Two of the people there behind the scenes are Simon and Leslie. Cool people. Fantastic coverage. (UPDATE: They are now linking to this post.)

Given the rules of engagement for tonight’s debate it’s a wonder we bother watching. The Chicago Sun Times has some details behind Obama and McCain’s “memorandum of understanding” concerning the debates. Get this:

Under the deal, the moderator may not ask followups or make comments. The person who asks the question will not be allowed a follow-up either, and his or her microphone will be turned off after the question is read. A camera shot will only be shown of the person asking — not reacting.

That’s not a debate. It’s a series of insanely scripted, mini infomercials. The questions and moderator really don’t matter much. Each of the two candidates will launch into their own attempts to steer the conversation and deliver their message right from the start.

Obama will do his best to appear calm, knowledgeable (yes, in spite of Palin’s political pole-dance over the past month, most people prefer candidates who know things), pensive, and presidential.

McCain will try not to look like an erratic crazy man while emphasizing his opponents’ major character flaws. For example, did you know that Obama was a terrorist loving, flag burning, Muslim name having, socialist?

My prediction: It’s either boring as hell to watch or McCain goes way over the top and directly refers to Obama as one or all of the above descriptions. This will make Obama earn his keep tonight as he is forced to answer the questions while leaving time enough allotted time to backtrack and deflect McCain’s preceding Maverick-blows.

The New York Times addresses the issue more clearly right here.

Does anybody expect much from this?

Check back here for my live blogging post.

RHM

It’s nice to see Karl Rove publicly acknowledge the reality of the electoral math that I mentioned in this past week’s super-awesome “Friday Morning Fix” (Sign up for it on the right sidebar.) The math shows an Obama victory all but guaranteed at this point. Yes, I know, anything can happen but I’m guessing he will play it safe for the next 29 days. Skeletons from his closet are not a big worry either. Remember, Obama survived a year-long battle against the Clintons, their supporters, and their army of private investigators. If there were anything to muck up from the past if would have been slung by now.

Sean Hannity’s interview with Sarah Palin was pure propaganda; a Sarah “Barracuda” Palin infomercial. Hannity is one of the many reasons why Fox News is almost unbearable to watch. From the giddy girlie-men who haunt the morning hours, through Cavuto’s gargantuan head, Shep, Brit Hume and the loofah-man himself, Bill O’Reilly – it is anything but “Fair and Balanced.” Can we all agree on that?

If you want a short, objective and reasonably tough criticism of our presidential choices, see this article in the Economist.

I’d comment more on the vice presidential debate but it’s easier to let Saturday Night Live summarize it for you. The guy playing Biden does a great job.

There’s been a lot of speculation lately as to whether or not the American empire is in its last days – some subtle, some not so subtle depending on who you listen to. And I’m not just talking about the wishful thinking of Chavez and Ahmadinejad.

Andrew Sullivan recently said this:

Until the US scales back its imperial ambitions across the Middle East and seriously cuts its entitlement state, the country’s global hegemony will come to an abrupt and humiliating end.

Pat Buchanan said this:

What we are witnessing today is how empires end.

The Last Superpower is unable to defend its borders, protect its currency, win its wars or balance its budget. Medicare and Social Security are headed for the cliff with unfunded liabilities in the tens of trillions of dollars.

Wow. You’d think that the U.S. were so belly-up that the Canadians were about to waltz in and colonize. Not quite.

First, all empires eventually fall – without exception. However, those who predict a near-term crumbling of the U.S. are either not looking at the big picture or letting their personal desires creep into reality. The U.S is the only superpower because in just about every measure it enjoys a comfortable lead and these sorts of advantages do not disappear over night. The economy is in the toilet (and about to go down further), but if any country can take the pain and do what it has to do to come out on top it is the U.S.

The bailout rescue program that passed the Senate and is waiting for approval in the House of Representatives is huge and difficult to understand. If you want a pro-rescue perspective read this article from the Economist. If you’re more into letting the market deal with it and accepting the consequences, this is an interesting read from a Harvard egg-head on CNN. Personally, I was torn in the beginning but now have to say I agree with the Harvard egg-head. What about you?

No matter what happens with the bailout rescue, the U.S. will get through it. Why? Because that’s what we do. And in the end each side will claim credit for leading us through dark times.

Palin v. Biden

The Vice Presidential debate last night was relatively uneventful. Palin did not crash and burn or have any major gaffes. How could she when answers are kept to 90 seconds, follow-ups were not allowed and there was no interaction between the candidates? Trust me, her implosion will continue because she simply lacks a deep understanding of pretty much anything. It’s been over a month and she has yet to give a press conference. Why? If she’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan and fully qualified to lead a global nuclear super-power she should be ready to face the press. Sadly, she’s not ready and her unpreparedness can’t be hidden forever. She will end up as one of the major nails in McCain’s coffin.

The only comment of hers that infuriated me was when she equated Obama and Biden’s Iraq plan with “waving the white flag of surrender.” Are you serious? This woman told the press last month that she had “heard about the surge on the news” and has yet to show any grasp of global affairs – let alone and understanding the intricacies of the Middle East, the War on Terror, and history. All of this will be glaringly obvious when and if they actually make her answer real questions. One thing is for certain. Conservatives are mistaking her ability to tread water in a highly controlled debate forum with readiness for high office. But you can’t fake it forever. In short, the debate didn’t change anything significantly.

Here’s a great site if you want to see the numbers that really matter (electoral votes) and what the congressional races are looking like. The democrats are going to win the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Not necessarily because they are so good, but because the last 8 years under the republicans have been so bad.

Personally, just like the free market, I have no problem seeing a party (or company) punished for poor performance. How about you?

PS: Don’t forget to vote in the new poll on the left sidebar.

RHM

Overall

The presidential debate was a pretty decent show. On a scale from 1 to 10, I’d give it an 8. It’s nice to see some banter between the candidates. The 2004 debates were horrendous as the candidates never got to mix it up. Jim Lehrer (moderator) did a good job of keeping things on track and encouraging some interaction between the two. They were pretty much free to help drive the conversation instead of just standing there waiting for a direct question like the Kerry v. Bush days.

Winner: McCain

If I had to declare a winner I’d have to say McCain, but not by much. Neither of these guys are especially skilled debaters (Bill Clinton would have eaten the room alive.) But McCain gave some strong, confident answers that made him look very knowledgeable. The blogs are afire about the small fact that McCain didn’t look at Obama all night. He just stared straight ahead like a 16 year old state debating champion. Kinda childish if you ask me. “DailKos” said this:

Rude, say some. Arrogant, say some. Condescending and contemptuous, say others. Passive-aggressive outrage, say still others, a lack of eye contact meant as an insult to Obama – not a planned insult, but because McCain is just that kind of person who can’t bear to think of others as equals, who was pissed off that this other person was even allowed on the same stage as him – a king, having to mingle with the commoners.

Probably, to some extent, all true. But none of those counts as the real reason.

The real reason is that every time Barack Obama says “…when I am President,” John McCain knows in his heart that this will soon be true.

Either way I think it was a bad move, it just brings attention to the “temper” issue that has plagued him for some many years. He should avoid anything that makes him come off as an “angry old white guy.” He should also know that Obama was right, Kissinger does advocate direct talks with Iran without preconditions.

Obama

He’s better than he was in the primaries, but still not an impressive debater. However, he has made leaps and bounds when it comes to shortening his answers and trying to “dumb it down” more. Face it, that’s what Americans need. Most people don’t follow this stuff very closely and others lack the capacity to understand much of it. We’re a country that prefers down-to-earth (i.e. not very bright) people to fill our most important positions (see Sam Harris quote in this week’s “Friday Morning Fix”).

Fallout

This debate won’t change many minds and, let’s face it, anyone who is undecided at this point cannot be paying much attention. We have two very different choices.

Predictably, the news channels and blogs reacted, well, predictably. Fox News and its viewers fell hard for McCain and pretty much everybody else fell for Obama.

Question: Karl Rove is a “Fox News Contributor.” Donna Brazile is a “CNN Contributor.” Which of the two do you find more objective in their analyses?????

I’m still pretty confident of an Obama win. I am also waiting patiently for Palin’s complete implosion. She will end up costing McCain the election. If you haven’t seen her in action, YOU MUST watch this video of Palin being interviewed by Couric.

RHM