Where in the world is Mullah Omar?
Have you seen this man? This one-eyed, ethnic Pashtun’s name is Mullah Mohammed Omar. He’s the leader of Afghanistan’s notorious Taliban and a close accomplice of Osama Bin Laden. Very little was known about Omar even before he went into hiding shortly after the attacks of September 11th, 2001, but most experts agree that he’s probably hiding out somewhere in Pakistan’s tribal region – the real front in the war on terrorism.
The conflict in Afghanistan, with its complex blend of ethnicities, religious sects, and divergent interests is an extremely difficult scenario to fully understand. Thankfully, we have warrior-scholars like Australian David Killcullen (Colonel, Ph.D. in Anthropology, insurgency and terrorism expert) to help clarify things for us. Some of his papers were required reading for me in grad school. The New Yorker recently interviewed him. It’s a short piece and well worth the time for anyone who wants to understand what’s happening on the ground in Afghanistan. Here are his recommendations to President-elect Obama:
First, the draw-down in Iraq needs to be conditions-based and needs to recognize how fragile our gains there have been, and our moral obligation to Iraqis who have trusted us. As I said, we don’t want to un-bog ourselves from Iraq only to get bogged in Afghanistan while Iraq turns bad again. Second, our priorities in Afghanistan should be security, governance, and dealing with the Pakistan safe haven—and we may not necessarily need that many more combat troops to do so. Third, the Afghan elections of September 2009 are a key milestone—we can’t just muddle through, and the key problem is political: delivering effective and legitimate governance that meets Afghans’ needs. And finally, most importantly, this is a wartime transition and we can’t afford the normal nine-month hiatus while we put the new Administration in place: the war in Afghanistan will be won or lost in the next fighting season, i.e. by the time of the September elections.
The situation in Afghanistan is dire. But the war is winnable. We need to focus our attention on the problem, and think before acting. But we need to think fast, and our actions need to involve a major change of direction, focussing on securing the population rather than chasing the enemy, and delivering effective legitimate governance to the people, bottom-up, at the local level. Do that, do it fast, and we stand an excellent chance of turning things around.
Hopefully Obama will be more open to the advice of scholars and experts than President Bush was prior to his foray into Middle East conflict. For an absolutely fantastic overview of Islamic terrorism, see Michael Scheuer’s Imperial Hubris. It’s a sobering look at myth versus reality in the war on terror, backed up by over twenty years of experience heading the CIA desk responsible for all issues related to Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda.
Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror
About the Author: Randall H. Miller is an American college educator/blogger. He is also a former U.S. Army officer (82nd Airborne) with a M.A. in Diplomacy (focusing on International Terrorism) and a B.A. in Criminal Justice. Use the form on the right to sign up and receive notifications of new content. The words and ideas expressed here are 100% his own and not those of his employers or affiliated organizations.
dickmill | Nov 15, 2008 | Reply
Wild Prediction: Neither Mullah Omar nor OBL will EVER be caught. And, their bodies will never be found — unless their organizations think it’s good for martyrdom.
The Taliban and al Qaeda aren’t as stupid as Saddam and his buddies. Even Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader, was able to hide out for years in plain sight!
And why should we care about a terrorist who hasn’t been able to do more than Bill Ayers in the last 7 years? In Boston we care more about Whitey Bulger!
http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten/fugitives/bulger.htm
JRMirador | Nov 15, 2008 | Reply
The war in Afghanistan is unwinnable, in its military accepted conception of the term. Negotiation with the Taliban is a must, and President Elect Barack Obama has already suggested this necessity. Also, Osama Bin Laden has never been officially accused as the perpetrator of 9/11.
Frank the Tank | Nov 15, 2008 | Reply
The one eyed Sheik?? He’s probably hanging out with the one eyed jacks. You can’t find those guys either when you need to.
Daniel Williams | Nov 15, 2008 | Reply
Osama bin Laden made clear from the beginning his desire for a global Islamic caliphate ruled by strict Sharia law. He also made clear he would start with the Middle East. But to be successful, he first needed to rid that region of Western forces – mainly the U.S. He felt the West was weak and would retreat when attacked. And our responses from 1987, when we lost 241 Marines in Beirut and left on the midnight train, to the girly one after the Cole attack off Yemen, did little to dissuade him.
So, maybe Osama bin Laden believed the attacks on September 11th would finally convince us to leave the Middle East. When the exact opposite occurred, I believe bin Laden was absolutely stunned. Not only did we fail to leave, we sent reinforcements – which queered his caliphate deal. So he decided to wear us down and wait us out, knowing the American voters would tire of the war and demand its end.
That we have not been attacked since September 11th is more a function of fear on bin Laden’s part that any homeland security engineered by the Bush administration: Osama knows another attack on our soil will turn all the doves among us into hawks and demand the full force and fury of the American military not only rain on his parade, but cancel it once and for all.
Frank the Tank | Nov 15, 2008 | Reply
@ Daniel
Excellent post. I think OBL was embolden by what transpired in Somalia and the complete lack of any reprisals after the Cole was attacked.
Daniel Williams | Nov 16, 2008 | Reply
Exactly.